The Coming End of Human Slavery
Rise Of
The Droids: Will Robots Eventually Steal All Of Our Jobs – or Free Wage Slave Humankind?
 |
By Michael Snyder
Will a robot take your job? We have entered a period in human history when technology is advancing at an exponential rate. In some ways, this has been a great blessing for humanity. For example, I am absolutely blown away by all of the things that my little iPod can do. But on the other hand, all of this technology is eliminating millions upon millions of high paying jobs.
In the past, I have written extensively about how millions of American jobs have been sent to the other side of the world, but now we may be moving into a time when workers all over the planet will be steadily losing jobs to super-efficient robots. For employers, robots provide a lot of advantages to human workers. Robots never complain, they never get tired, they never need vacation, they never show up late, they never waste time of Facebook, they don't need any health benefits and there are a whole lot of rules, regulations and taxes that you must deal with when you hire a human worker.
In the past, robots were exceedingly expensive, and that limited their usefulness in the workplace, but as you will see later in this article that is rapidly changing. As robots continue to become even more advanced and even less expensive, will there eventually come a point where the "human worker" is virtually obsolete?
Of course I can hear the objections already. Many of you will insist that even though automation has always eliminated jobs in the past, it has also always created new jobs that were even better. For instance, once upon a time most of the U.S. population worked on farms, but thanks to automation now hardly any of us do.
But what happens when we get to the point where super-intelligent robots are more efficient at everything?
What will be left for "human workers" to do?
And
if human workers are no longer needed for most tasks, what will their role in
society be?
Personally, I still complain about self-service check-in kiosks at airports and self-checkout lanes at supermarkets, but most people seem to have accepted them. There are even many bank branches now that don't have any humans in them at all. The number of jobs where a human worker is absolutely "required" is dwindling all the time.
And a lot of the jobs that are disappearing thanks to advances in technology are fairly high paying jobs. In fact, one recent study of employment data from 20 countries discovered that "almost all the jobs disappearing are in industries that pay middle-class wages, ranging from $38,000 to $68,000."
As I mentioned earlier, in the past robots were simply far too expensive to perform most tasks. So human workers had an advantage.
But that advantage is disappearing right in front of our eyes. For example, one company has produced a new robot called "Baxter" that only costs $22,000. The following is from an article about Baxter in the MIT Technology Review...
Baxter
was conceived by Rodney Brooks, the Australian roboticist and
artificial-intelligence expert who left MIT to build a $22,000 humanoid robot
that can easily be programmed to do simple jobs that have never been automated
before.
Eventually,
the goal is to produce versions of Baxter that will perform tasks even more
cheaply than Chinese workers do...
Brooks’s
company, Rethink Robotics, says the robot will spark a 'renaissance' in
American manufacturing by helping small companies compete against low-wage
offshore labor. Baxter will do that by accelerating a trend of factory
efficiency that’s eliminated more jobs in the U.S. than overseas competition
has. Of the approximately 5.8 million manufacturing jobs the U.S. lost between
2000 and 2010, according to McKinsey Global Institute, two-thirds were lost
because of higher productivity and only 20 percent moved to places like China,
Mexico, or Thailand.
The
ultimate goal is for robots like Baxter to take over more complex tasks, such
as fitting together parts on an electronics assembly line. 'A couple more ticks
of Moore’s Law and you’ve got automation that works more cheaply than Chinese
labor does,' Andrew McAfee, an MIT researcher, predicted last year at a
conference in Tucson, Arizona, where Baxter was discussed.
So
it won't just be American workers that will be displaced by robots - it will
literally be workers all over the planet.
In the future, when you call someone for customer service you probably won't be talking to someone in India. Instead, you will probably be talking to a robot. In fact, this transition is already starting to happen...
IPsoft
is a young company started by Chetan Dube, a former mathematics professor at
New York University. He reckons that artificial intelligence can take over most
of the routine information-technology and business-process tasks currently
performed by workers in offshore locations. 'The last decade was about
replacing labour with cheaper labour,' says Mr Dube. “The coming decade will be
about replacing cheaper labour with autonomics.”
IPsoft’s
Eliza, a 'virtual service-desk employee' that learns on the job and can reply
to e-mail, answer phone calls and hold conversations, is being tested by
several multinationals. At one American media giant she is answering 62,000
calls a month from the firm’s information-technology staff. She is able to
solve two out of three of the problems without human help. At IPsoft’s
media-industry customer Eliza has replaced India’s Tata Consulting Services.
Even
some of the largest companies in China are starting to make the transition from
human workers to robots. The following is from a recent TechCrunch article...
Foxconn
has been
planning to buy 1 million robots to replace human workers and it looks like
that change, albeit gradual, is about to start.
The
company is allegedly paying $25,000 per robot – about three times a worker’s
average salary – and they will replace humans in assembly tasks. The plans have
been in place for a while – I spoke to Foxconn reps about this a year ago
– and it makes perfect sense. Humans are messy, they want more money, and
having a half-a-million of them in one factory is a recipe for unrest. But what
happens after the halls are clear of careful young men and women and instead
full of whirring robots?
So
what will the world look like as robots begin to replace humans in just about
every industry that you can imagine?
A recent Wired article described what this transition might look like...
A recent Wired article described what this transition might look like...
First,
machines will consolidate their gains in already-automated industries. After
robots finish replacing assembly line workers, they will replace the workers in
warehouses. Speedy bots able to lift 150 pounds all day long will retrieve
boxes, sort them, and load them onto trucks. Fruit and vegetable picking will
continue to be robotized until no humans pick outside of specialty farms.
Pharmacies will feature a single pill-dispensing robot in the back while the
pharmacists focus on patient consulting. Next, the more dexterous chores of
cleaning in offices and schools will be taken over by late-night robots,
starting with easy-to-do floors and windows and eventually getting to toilets.
The highway legs of long-haul trucking routes will be driven by robots embedded
in truck cabs.
All
the while, robots will continue their migration into white-collar work. We
already have artificial intelligence in many of our machines; we just don’t
call it that. Witness one piece of software by Narrative Science (profiled in
issue 20.05) that can write newspaper stories about sports games directly from
the games’ stats or generate a synopsis of a company’s stock performance each
day from bits of text around the web. Any job dealing with reams of paperwork
will be taken over by bots, including much of medicine. Even those areas of
medicine not defined by paperwork, such as surgery, are becoming increasingly
robotic. The rote tasks of any information-intensive job can be automated. It
doesn’t matter if you are a doctor, lawyer, architect, reporter, or even programmer:
The robot takeover will be epic.
I
don't know about you, but the phrase "robot takeover" is not exactly
comforting. Perhaps I just watch too many movies.
In any event, as technology advances there will eventually be very few jobs that robots cannot perform. In fact, you might be surprised to learn some of the things that robots are already doing. The following is from a recent Yahoo News article...
Google
and Toyota are rolling out cars that can drive themselves. The Pentagon deploys
robots to find roadside explosives in Afghanistan and wages war from the air
with drone aircraft. North Carolina State University this month introduced a
high-tech library where robots — 'bookBots' — retrieve books when students
request them, instead of humans. The library's 1.5 million books are no longer
displayed on shelves; they're kept in 18,000 metal bins that require one-ninth
the space.
So
what will the 3.1 million Americans that
drive trucks do for a living once robots are driving all of our trucks?
What will the 573,000 Americans that drive buses do for a living once robots are driving all of our buses?
And eventually even our skies may be filled with robotic drones that are busy performing one task or another.
Just check out what a recent Time Magazine article had to say about the emerging drone industry...
What will the 573,000 Americans that drive buses do for a living once robots are driving all of our buses?
And eventually even our skies may be filled with robotic drones that are busy performing one task or another.
Just check out what a recent Time Magazine article had to say about the emerging drone industry...
But
the drone industry is ramping up for a big landgrab the moment the regulatory
environment starts to relax. At last year's Association for Unmanned Vehicle
Systems International (AUVSI) trade show in Las Vegas, more than 500 companies
pitched drones for filming crowds and tornados and surveying agricultural fields,
power lines, coalfields, construction sites, gas spills and archaeological
digs. A Palo Alto, Calif., start-up called Matternet wants to establish a
network of drones that will transport small, urgent packages, like those for
medicine.
In
other countries civilian drone populations are already booming. Aerial video is
a major application. A U.K. company called Skypower makes the eight-rotored
Cinipro drone, which can carry a cinema-quality movie camera. In Costa Rica
they're used to study volcanoes. In Japan drones dust crops and track schools
of tuna; emergency workers used one to survey the damage at Fukushima. A nature
preserve in Kenya ran a crowdsourced fundraising drive to buy drones to watch
over the last few northern white rhinos. Ironically, while the U.S. has been
the leader in sending drones overseas, it's lagging behind when it comes to
deploying them on its own turf.
Unfortunately,
many people will not understand what I am really trying to get at in this
article.
They will just say something like this: "Well, they are going to need someone to build all of those robots."
Even if that is true, they won't need hundreds of millions of us to build them.
No, the truth is that when human workers become "obsolete", those that dominate society with technology will look at the rest of us as "useless eaters" that are not contributing anything to society at all.
Already, there are many economists that are warning that advancements in technology are steadily reducing "the natural employment rate".
And we are already seeing this happen in the United States. As I wrote about the other day, the percentage of the labor force that is employed has declined every single year since 2006...
2006: 63.1
2007: 63.0
2008: 62.2
2009: 59.3
2010: 58.5
2011: 58.4
In January, only 57.9 percent of the civilian labor force was employed.
Of course there are certainly a lot of factors involved in why those numbers are declining, but without a doubt technology is playing a role.
So what do we do with all of the workers that are being displaced?
Are we just going to put everybody on food stamps?
Will the gap between the rich and the poor grow even larger than it is today?
Will most people eventually become dependent on the government in order to survive?
We are moving into uncharted territory, and nobody is quite sure what comes next.
As time goes by, robots will even start to look more like us. In fact, this is already starting to happen. Just check out the following description of a "bionic man" that has been created from a recent article in the Guardian...
They will just say something like this: "Well, they are going to need someone to build all of those robots."
Even if that is true, they won't need hundreds of millions of us to build them.
No, the truth is that when human workers become "obsolete", those that dominate society with technology will look at the rest of us as "useless eaters" that are not contributing anything to society at all.
Already, there are many economists that are warning that advancements in technology are steadily reducing "the natural employment rate".
And we are already seeing this happen in the United States. As I wrote about the other day, the percentage of the labor force that is employed has declined every single year since 2006...
2006: 63.1
2007: 63.0
2008: 62.2
2009: 59.3
2010: 58.5
2011: 58.4
In January, only 57.9 percent of the civilian labor force was employed.
Of course there are certainly a lot of factors involved in why those numbers are declining, but without a doubt technology is playing a role.
So what do we do with all of the workers that are being displaced?
Are we just going to put everybody on food stamps?
Will the gap between the rich and the poor grow even larger than it is today?
Will most people eventually become dependent on the government in order to survive?
We are moving into uncharted territory, and nobody is quite sure what comes next.
As time goes by, robots will even start to look more like us. In fact, this is already starting to happen. Just check out the following description of a "bionic man" that has been created from a recent article in the Guardian...
He
cuts a dashing figure, this gentleman: nearly seven feet tall, and possessed of
a pair of striking brown eyes. With a fondness for Ralph Lauren, middle-class
rap and sharing a drink with friends, Rex is, in many ways, an unexceptional
chap.
Except
that he is, in fact, a real-world bionic man. Housed within a frame of
state-of-the-art prosthetic limbs is a functional heart-lung system, complete
with artificial blood pumping through a network of pulsating modified-polymer
arteries. He has a bionic spleen to clean the blood, and an artificial pancreas
to keep his blood sugar on the level. Behind the deep brown irises are a pair
of retinal implants, giving him a vista of the crowds of curious humans who
meet his gaze.
He
even has a degree of artificial intelligence: talk to him, and he'll listen
(through his cochlear implants), before using a speech generator to respond.
Will we be told that we must "merge with the machines" in order to keep up and be useful in society?
As we rapidly approach the "technological singularity" that futurist Ray Kurzweil and others have talked about, will humans increasingly seek to "enhance" themselves with technology in an attempt to "get an edge"?
What will happen to those of us that refuse to "merge with the machines" and that refuse to "enhance ourselves" with technology?
Will we be outcasts?
Those are some important questions. Feel free to share your thoughts on those questions by posting a comment below...
5 Ways Robots Are Outsourcing Humans in the Workforce
By Nicholas West
The outsourcing of human jobs as a side effect of globalization has arguably contributed to the current unemployment crisis. However, a growing trend sees humans done away with altogether, even in the low-wage countries where many American jobs have landed.
Citing brutal working conditions, inefficiency and corporate bottom lines, human beings are gradually becoming redundant. Moreover, there are indications that even skilled labor will soon be replaced, rendering humans obsolete in a variety of new ways.
At this point it doesn't seem like the outsourcing of human abilities to our robotic counterparts is leading us toward the life of leisure that has been promised, but instead is leading to humans being perceived as nothing more than a troubling quantity within a new economic algorithm. How can we ensure that we maintain relevance during a time of such rapid change?
Product Fulfillment Process: We all have become incrementally familiar with the ways that our orders, requests and demands are handled by non-humans. Fulfillment can range from ATMs, automatic grocery checkout, online order processing, having a movie delivered by mail or Internet, to automated answer systems for nearly all of our products.
Order fulfillment by machines is nearly ubiquitous. A component of this is the warehouse -- finding an item, packaging, and shipping it. The following personal account titled, "We are Obsolete" sums up perfectly the company reasoning behind getting rid of humans in this part of the workplace:
My
boss informed me that another employee was replacing me. The new employee was
far better then me and would never take a day off. The new employee would never
fall sick, never ask for overtime pay, and had nothing to do with the union.
The new employee would not waste time near the water cooler socializing with
other employees and would never waste time on Facebook. The new employee would
never get stressed out, or have a nervous breakdown. The new employee would
never get tired and will work tirelessly forever. Most importantly, the new employee
will never get injured and sue the company for compensation.
Meet
1557. The new employee is a robot. This robot just replaced me in the warehouse
today. This is the reality. (Source)
The
fulfillment process also takes place in the medical field. We are now seeing robotic
assistants in surgery and diagnostics, as well as research, manufacturing
and dispensing. Artificial
neural networks have been implemented to help make diagnoses, thus reducing
human error. Some speculate that with the advent of nanotechnology it won't be
long before autonomous robotic
diagnosis and surgery from the inside out will be possible down to the DNA
level.
Manufacturing: The Taiwanese Company Foxconn, answered criticism of its brutal working conditions by replacing its human force of 1.2 million people with 1 million robots to make laptops, mobile devices and other electronics hardware for Apple, Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Sony. The company previously had made workers sign contracts that they would not commit suicide, and would even install "suicide nets." But even these measure seem to be too much of a hassle for executives to deal with. (Source) As computer engineer, and author Martin Ford has stated, it is not merely the repetitive and precise needs of the assembly line that are being met by machines in a variety of industries, but more skilled labor as well.
Manufacturing: The Taiwanese Company Foxconn, answered criticism of its brutal working conditions by replacing its human force of 1.2 million people with 1 million robots to make laptops, mobile devices and other electronics hardware for Apple, Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Sony. The company previously had made workers sign contracts that they would not commit suicide, and would even install "suicide nets." But even these measure seem to be too much of a hassle for executives to deal with. (Source) As computer engineer, and author Martin Ford has stated, it is not merely the repetitive and precise needs of the assembly line that are being met by machines in a variety of industries, but more skilled labor as well.
How could management get rid of
these skilled workers?
They
could simply build a remote controlled robot to perform the task, and then offshore the
control function. As we have pointed out, it is the ability to recognize a
complex visual image and then manipulate a robot arm based on that image that
is a primary challenge preventing full robotic automation. Transmitting a
real-time visual image overseas, where a low paid worker can then manipulate
the machinery, is certainly already feasible. Remote controlled robots are
currently used in military and police applications that would be dangerous for
humans. We very likely will see such robots in factories and workplaces in the
near future. (Source)
Domestic Service: A host of lifelike, even humanoid
robots, have been developed with a range of motion and ability that is leading
to a growing possibility of a "bot in every household." An
article written back in 2004 titled, "From Outsourcing to
Botsourcing" posited a disturbing near-term future at the time of its
writing:
If
you're middle-aged now, perhaps your closest companion in your dotage will be a
wirelessly connected android that traipses after you, bringing iced tea or
martinis, and reminding you to take your medications, send a birthday card to
your grandson, and sell your Cisco stock. (Source)
Eight
years is an eternity in computing, so where do we stand here in 2012 relative
to the above scenario? The following is a short list of commercially available
service robots, the prices of which have fallen at warp speed to be within
reach of an increasing number of people. When Bill Gates says that this
industry can
change the world we should probably listen. So much so that even the
world's oldest service profession can be outsourced, which should lead us to
wonder just how attached we already have become to the machines in our lives. (Source)
- Automatic vaccum cleaners: both for the home and business.
- Weeding and grass cutting: (Source)
- Snow removal: (Source)
- Excavating: (Source)
- Construction: (Source)
- Housesitting: (Source)
- Butlers: (Video)
- Nursing care: (Video)
- Companionship and Assistance: for pets and people
- Personal Entertainment and Companionship: See ASIMO, and Romeo.
Warfare: In a matter of just a few years, we have gone from
the idea of drones
in America being a secret, to having the open announcement that there are
now 63
drone bases on American soil. Machine warfare very well could be our
greatest existential threat, as autonomous intercommunicating
systems are being developed with the capability for unilateral threat
assessment and war theater decision making. However, there is also the human
toll. It is once again cited that robotic warfare lessens the dangers to
humans, but at some level it becomes an outright replacement, such as DARPA's
amazingly human PETMAN
and other warbots at its disposal. Similar to the machines in a factory,
robots don't have human frailties such as sickness, tiredness, mental health
issues, clouded judgement based on emotions ... or conscience. Where do the
human resources of war go when they have been outsourced?
Artificial Intelligence: This is the overlay X-factor for each of the categories above that are already in place and affecting the global economy. Until now, robotic systems have been no better than how they have been programmed to behave. Yes, they are more efficient, durable, and predictable in most cases; however, we are now on the cusp of the next stage of development where full-blown autonomous self-learning systems take us into the realm of science fiction -- delivery systems and self-driving vehicles alone could change day-to-day life as we know it, not to mention the social implications. (Source)
Two future areas which could have the largest transformative effect on what it means to be a human member of society are in the areas of education and governance.
It is a logical extension to presume that the above-listed abilities applied within medicine, healthcare and domestic services could apply quite easily to teaching. In fact, economist Kim Shin-hwan at South Korea’s Hyundai Research Institute says, “By 2015, robots should be able to assist teachers in the classroom. By 2018, they should be able to teach on their own, and this will cause many teachers to lose their jobs.” (Source)
Likewise, "positive futurist" Dick Pelletier considers the greater impact of the loss of skilled jobs, right up to and including law makers, judges and police officers. The above-mentioned PETMAN project at DARPA makes it clear that they are actively seeking humanoid replacements in war, so law enforcement can't be far off. However, an even greater ethical debate is raised when we look at government, which is currently filled stem to stern with all manner of corruption. Pelletier cites National Science Foundation consultant Pamela McCorduck for this argument:
Artificial Intelligence: This is the overlay X-factor for each of the categories above that are already in place and affecting the global economy. Until now, robotic systems have been no better than how they have been programmed to behave. Yes, they are more efficient, durable, and predictable in most cases; however, we are now on the cusp of the next stage of development where full-blown autonomous self-learning systems take us into the realm of science fiction -- delivery systems and self-driving vehicles alone could change day-to-day life as we know it, not to mention the social implications. (Source)
Two future areas which could have the largest transformative effect on what it means to be a human member of society are in the areas of education and governance.
It is a logical extension to presume that the above-listed abilities applied within medicine, healthcare and domestic services could apply quite easily to teaching. In fact, economist Kim Shin-hwan at South Korea’s Hyundai Research Institute says, “By 2015, robots should be able to assist teachers in the classroom. By 2018, they should be able to teach on their own, and this will cause many teachers to lose their jobs.” (Source)
Likewise, "positive futurist" Dick Pelletier considers the greater impact of the loss of skilled jobs, right up to and including law makers, judges and police officers. The above-mentioned PETMAN project at DARPA makes it clear that they are actively seeking humanoid replacements in war, so law enforcement can't be far off. However, an even greater ethical debate is raised when we look at government, which is currently filled stem to stern with all manner of corruption. Pelletier cites National Science Foundation consultant Pamela McCorduck for this argument:
I’d
rather take my chances with an impartial computer,' referring to conditions
where she would prefer to have automated law makers, judges, and police that
have no personal agenda. (Source)
Technology always has been a double-edged sword. The possibilities presented by artificial intelligence and robotics hold massive positive potential that actually could challenge elite power structures. In the meantime our economy is transforming away from human inefficiency and variability to a robot economy that could threaten the self-determination of billions of people. Without a massive paradigm shift in the ability for the average person to tap into the growing potential for a massive reduction in cost of goods and services, we will be left with another system of haves and have nots.
Futurist, Peter Diamandis, states with certainty in the video below that the developments over the coming decade or two will lead us to superhuman powers that will render us "Godlike." Notice that he states "all of us." Really? If so, it is an ethical decision we need to commit to before that decision is made for us either by those who aim to control the technology, or the technology itself.
For an excellent compendium on the latest in robotics and artificial intelligence, I highly recommend that you visit ROS Robotics News.
For a positive outlook with some proposed solutions for humanity within the ongoing evolution of robotics and automated systems, visit Dick Pelletier's website Positive Futurist. In a similar vein, I also would recommend Tony Cartalucci's fantastic article "Elite Power Threatened by Global Technological Progress."
A positive outcome is certainly worth considering, as we have our fair share of dystopian works of science fiction to serve as a collective cautionary tale against permitting intelligent machines.
I would love to hear what you think about the current and future role of robotics -- will this lead to unbridled freedom for humanity or planned obsolescence? You can leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
From Activist Post @ http://www.activistpost.com/2013/02/rise-of-droids-will-robots-eventually.html and http://www.activistpost.com/2012/05/5-ways-robots-are-outsourcing-humans-in.html
For more information about automation see http://nexusilluminati.blogspot.com/search/label/automation
For more information about wage slavery see http://nexusilluminati.blogspot.com/search/label/wage%20slaves
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