Pseudoscepticism: Trolls and Ostriches

Pseudoscepticism

Trolls and Ostriches

So much of what we do in this field comes under constant and sustained attack by individuals who label themselves as critical thinkers and sceptics, when in reality they are nothing more than pseudosceptics, more popularly known as debunkers. 

Therefore, it is important that we are able to identify this behaviour and see it for what it is – simply an attempt to twist and subvert any theory or position that does not subscribe to the mainstream point of view.

Many pseudosceptics also display behavioural traits identified as IDP – Imagination Deficiency Personality which include such symptoms as “delusions of superiority” – which we will come to later.

Before we explore the nature of pseudoscepticism we need to ask what it is that defines a true sceptic?

 

True Sceptics

A true sceptic objectively enquires and seeks evidence, challenging all sides of the debate, including their own beliefs.  Real sceptics are not preoccupied with taking sides, but objectively enquire to seek the truth, no matter where it leads.  An admirable pursuit indeed.

Pseudosceptics & Pseudoscepticism

Pseudosceptics on the other hand, have a pre-defined agenda to preserve dogma and to dismiss out of hand any ideas not conforming to the establishment point of view.  Essentially this makes them establishment defenders.

Pseudoscepticism or pseudo-scepticism is defined as thinking that claims to be sceptical, but is actually faith-based disbelief.  Because real scepticism is a justifiable position, pseudoscepticism may also be defined as making pseudo-scientific arguments in pursuit of a sceptical agenda.

Pseudoscepticism is a general term which encompasses two types of faith-based disbelief: making positive claims that something is wrong or unreal without evidence (positive disbelief), and rejecting sufficient evidence.

Origins

The term pseudoscepticism was first coined by Marcello Truzzi. Truzzi was sceptical of investigators and debunkers who determined the validity of a claim prior to investigation. He accused CSICOP of increasingly unscientific behavior, for which he coined the term pseudoscepticism. Truzzi stated:

“They tend to block honest inquiry, in my opinion. Most of them are not agnostic toward claims of the paranormal; they are out to knock them. [...] When an experiment of the paranormal meets their requirements, then they move the goal posts. Then, if the experiment is reputable, they say it’s a mere anomaly.”

Throughout the years, other commentators have made very astute observations about the nature and behavioural charecteristics of pseudosceptics.

“What sceptics fail to understand is that scepticism involves being sceptical of your own position, it does not mean just being sceptical of that which you do not believe in, otherwise we are all sceptics and that renders their use of the term “sceptic” meaningless. A true sceptic casts scepticism on their own position as well. Since the Randi crowd do not employ scepticism in this respect then they are fairly termed pseudosceptics and demean the term scepticism.”

Despite their supposed adoption of the scientific method, pseudosceptics do not even subscribe to scientific means, because they do not update their hypotheses to fit the facts, but instead they always reject any facts that don’t fit neatly into their hypothesis.

Pseudosceptics ridicule and deny all paranormal claims while also denying all conspiracies and facts in support of them, meanwhile they unquestioningly accept any mainstream media spin and establishment proselytism as undisputed fact.

“There are some members of the sceptics groups who clearly believe that they know the right answer prior to enquiry. They appear not to be interested in weighing alternatives, investigating strange claims, or trying out psychic experiences or altered states for themselves (heaven forbid!), but only in promoting their own particular belief structure and cohesion” – Susan Blackmore

“The original definition of sceptic was a person who questions all beliefs, facts, and points-of-view. A healthy perspective in my opinion.  Today’s common definition of a sceptic is someone who questions any belief that strays outside of the status quo, yet leaving the status quo itself completely unquestioned. Kind of a juvenile and intellectually lazy practice in my opinion.” – author unknown.

“They claim that their behavior is “scepticism” but in reality they know nothing about the true meaning of scepticism nor practice it since they apply no scepticism to their own beliefs or to the status quo but in fact have a total blind spot to them.  Pyrrho, the founder of “Scepticism”, intended for it to be about open inquiry and suspension of judgment.  I’ve never trusted sceptics, for the very reason that they are willing to accept the official version of things without a shred of proof but require unrealistic amounts of evidence to accept any other possibility.”

---

Regardless of the facts and evidence presented, pseudosceptics always START and END with the following dogmatic positions:

• There is no evidence for paranormal claims. They are all bunk and cannot be true.
• Conspiracies are all false. There is no evidence for them. Official sources are not to be questioned.
• Anything that challenges the status quo and materialism is wrong and must be debunked.
• Only mundane materialistic explanations are acceptable.  Paranormal ones are not.

Naval scientist Eldon Byrd put it rather succinctly when he said – “What major contribution has any sceptic made to the betterment of humankind?  How many Mother Teresa’s have they produced?  How many great scientific discoveries have they made?  Many of them are like movie critics–useless and usually wrong.”

 

 

Personality Traits

Novelist and blogger Michael Prescott very eleoquently described them:

“Their penchant for denigrating and discrediting the paranormal is not simply a tic of the personality, but the ineluctable consequence of a certain fundamental view of life, mind, and the cosmos.  Unfortunately, people with a powerful personal agenda do not make the best sceptics – at least not if scepticism is understood as the exercise of unbiased objectivity.

Self-doubt – or at least the admission of same – is not characteristic of the sceptic, who prefers to radiate an aura of unshakable assurance. To admit any doubt is to cede territory to the forces of unreason – the primordial enemy, which, as we have seen, must be resisted by any means.  And here we come to what is, as I see it, the real problem with sceptics. They wish, above all, to be certain – and when reality doesn’t oblige them by offering clear-cut answers, they turn away from reality and seek refuge in pre-existing theory.

They oversimplify history as a battle between good and evil, and miss its complexities and subtleties. They resist modern developments in science and cling to outdated, nineteenth century conceptions. They jump to prearranged conclusions and shut their eyes – and their minds – to anomalous data and alternative explanations.

In their quest to prove themselves right, they lose sight of the ambiguities and paradoxes of life.  In their desire to be safe and sure, they turn away from anything interesting and new.

They are creatures of comfort and routine, not explorers. They cannot think outside the box. They will, in fact, deny that there is or ever could be anything outside the box – and they’ll heap scorn on anyone who suggests otherwise.

They’ll call names, cry fraud, and holler that civilization is in danger and the barbarians are at the gates. They’ll do anything, really – except examine their own assumptions with a remotely critical eye.”

 

Imagination Deficiency Personality

Many of these personality traits are linked with IDP – Imagination Deficiency Personality. In this study, the written works of ten well known sceptics were compared to seven criterion from Barbara & Walters (1883) Imagination Deficient Personality (IDP) scale. In eight cases the sceptics scored seven out of seven and the remaining two sceptics scored six out of seven for these traits. The traits selected from Barbara & Walters are:

• Lack of meta-awareness: Imagination deficient people show a lack of awareness of the motivation or value systems of others. Often they will make assumptions regarding “right thinking” which fail to take into account the unique circumstances or social structure in which other people live. For example, they may argue with people about religion or other unprovable metaphysical beliefs. Low meta-awareness may also be shown by disregard, or in the case of subject 7 hostility towards, minorities or disfranchised people. Subjects 1, 8 and 9 actually organized conferences dedicated to ‘correcting’ the thinking of non-sceptics.

• Curmudgeonality: A person with IDP is often suspicious of or hostile towards new social trends. Note, this is not the same as complaining about progress (95% of IDP were strongly for progress in Barbara & Walter’s study), it is instead a sense that values are slipping, or the world is suffering from spreading disrespect, irrationality or lowered standards. Subjects 1, 7, 8 and 9 frequently made remarks regarding a decline in society, all 10 subjects made at least passing reference to spreading irrationality.

• Transcendental Substitution: The imagination deficient person tends not to participate in traditional social institutions which promote brotherhood, tribal union or spiritual values, so many of them substitute non-traditional institutions they find acceptable. For example, the IDP may take up an interest in magic, or science, or they may join a library. 64% of Barbara & Walter’s IDP subjects subscribed to three or more science magazines. Again, all 10 subjects were positive on this indicator, 2 going so far as to set up temple like structures in which to meet.

• Hyper-realistic representation: This is a tendency on the part of the imagination deficient to expect a realistic or rational representation in all aspects of life. For example, the IDP may engage in nit picking about plot lines in TV programs or books, or complain about contemporary linguistic usage which conflicts with a technical term. Eight of the 10 subjects scored positive on this measure. Subjects 8 and 9 wrote books substantially about correct usage of scientific terms.

• Fictional miss-identification: Often an IDP will react to fictional representations as though they are real. For example, they may complain about how a popular fictional TV programs portrays the paranormal, or get irate if a book they are reading invokes a ghost or spirit, or has a character convert to a spiritual outlook. Some write letters of complaint to newspapers that, for example, carry an astrology column. Once again all subjects were positive on this measure with one (Subject 5) even refusing to fly on an airline whose travel magazine included an astrology column.

• Delusions of superiority: In many cases the IDP will believe that they have special traits or talents not shared by other people. Usually these are confined to a narrow range of human abilities, and tend to center around issues of intelligence or education. In the mildly IDP this may simply come off as immaturity, arrogance or elitism. Subject 3, however, consistently referred to others as “delusional” or made references to “Elevator[s] not going to the top floor,” and subjects 7, 8 and 9 dedicated substantial time to denigrating the works of some obscure scholars.

• Mission directed outlook: The imagination deficient frequently believe that they serve a greater cause, or that some necessary actions must be taken to avoid disaster. All ten subjects, for example, make reference to a “rising tide of irrationality,” and subjects 1, 3 and 5 invoke this before all public gatherings. In extreme cases this may involve actions that resemble attempts at conversion or missionary work.∗

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Solar activity & climate: is the sun causing global warming? Not Lately…

The skeptic argument...

It's the sun

"Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, at the time when the Earth has been getting warmer. The data suggests solar activity is influencing the global climate causing the world to get warmer." (BBC)

What the science says...

In the last 35 years of global warming, the Sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in opposite directions.
As supplier of almost all the energy in Earth's climate, the sun has a strong influence on climate. A comparison of sun and climate over the past 1150 years found temperatures closely match solar activity (Usoskin 2005). However, after 1975, temperatures rose while solar activity showed little to no long-term trend. This led the study to conclude, "...during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source."
In fact, a number of independent measurements of solar activity indicate the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1960, over the same period that global temperatures have been warming. Over the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been moving in opposite directions. An analysis of solar trends concluded that the sun has actually contributed a slight cooling influence in recent decades (Lockwood 2008).

Figure 1: Annual global temperature change (thin light red) with 11 year moving average of temperature (thick dark red). Temperature from NASA GISS. Annual Total Solar Irradiance (thin light blue) with 11 year moving average of TSI (thick dark blue). TSI from 1880 to 1978 from Solanki. TSI from 1979 to 2009 from PMOD.

Other studies on solar influence on climate

This conclusion is confirmed by many studies finding that while the sun contributed to warming in the early 20th Century, it has had little contribution (most likely negative) in the last few decades:

• Erlykin 2009: "We deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to solar activity is 14% of the observed global warming."
• Benestad 2009: "Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980."
• Lockwood 2008: "It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2? confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%."
• Lean 2008: "According to this analysis, solar forcing contributed negligible long-term warming in the past 25 years and 10% of the warming in the past 100 years..."
• Lockwood 2008: "The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings."
• Ammann 2007: "Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century."
• Lockwood 2007: "The observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanism is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified."
• Foukal 2006 concludes "The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978 are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming over the past 30 years."
• Scafetta 2006 says "since 1975 global warming has occurred much faster than could be reasonably expected from the sun alone."
• Usoskin 2005 conclude "during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source."
• Solanki 2004 reconstructs 11,400 years of sunspot numbers using radiocarbon concentrations, finding "solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades".
• Haigh 2003 says "Observational data suggest that the Sun has influenced temperatures on decadal, centennial and millennial time-scales, but radiative forcing considerations and the results of energy-balance models and general circulation models suggest that the warming during the latter part of the 20th century cannot be ascribed entirely to solar effects."
• Stott 2003 increased climate model sensitivity to solar forcing and still found "most warming over the last 50 yr is likely to have been caused by increases in greenhouse gases."
• Solanki 2003 concludes "the Sun has contributed less than 30% of the global warming since 1970."
• Lean 1999 concludes "it is unlikely that Sun–climate relationships can account for much of the warming since 1970."
• Waple 1999 finds "little evidence to suggest that changes in irradiance are having a large impact on the current warming trend."
• Frolich 1998 concludes "solar radiative output trends contributed little of the 0.2°C increase in the global mean surface temperature in the past decade."

From http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm

Hotter-burning sun warming the planet?

The sun [was] burning hotter than usual, offering a possible explanation for global warming that needs to be weighed when proceeding with expensive efforts to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, Swiss and German scientists say.
"The sun has been at its strongest over the past 60 years and may now be affecting global temperatures," said Sami Solanki, the director of the renowned Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Gottingen, Germany, who led the research.
"The sun is in a changed state. It is brighter than it was a few hundred years ago and this brightening started relatively recently -- in the last 100 to 150 years," Mr. Solanski said.
Average global temperatures have increased by about 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 20 years and are widely believed to be responsible for new extremes in weather patterns.
Globally, 1997, 1998 and 2002 were the hottest years since worldwide weather records were first collated in 1860.
Bill Burrows, a climatologist and a member of the Royal Meteorological Society, welcomed Mr. Solanki's research.
"It shows that there is enough happening on the solar front to merit further research. Perhaps we are devoting too many resources to correcting human effects on the climate without being sure that we are the major contributor," he said.
Mr. Solanki said that the brighter sun and higher levels of so-called "greenhouse gases" both contributed to the change in the Earth's temperature, but it was impossible to say which had the greater impact.
Most scientists agree that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide from fossil fuels have contributed to the warming of the planet in the past few decades, but have questioned whether other factors beyond man's control are also to blame.
To determine the sun's role in global warming, Mr. Solanki's research team measured magnetic zones on the sun's surface known as sunspots, which are believed to intensify the sun's energy output.
The team studied sunspot data going back several hundred years. They found that a dearth of sunspots signaled a cold period -- which could last up to 50 years -- but that over the past century their numbers had increased as the Earth's climate grew steadily warmer.
Mr. Solanki does not know what is causing the sun to burn brighter now or how long this cycle would last.
He says that the increased solar brightness over the past 20 years has not been enough to cause the observed climate changes, but believes that the impact of intense sunshine on the ozone layer and cloud cover could be affecting the climate more than the sunlight itself.
David Viner, the senior research scientist at the University of East Anglia's climatic research unit, said the research showed that the sun did have an effect on global warming.
He added, however, that the study also showed that over the past 20 years, the number of sunspots had remained roughly constant, while the Earth's temperature had continued to increase.
This suggested that over the past 20 years, human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation had begun to dominate "the natural factors involved in climate change," he said.

Via http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/jul/18/20040718-115714-6334r/

Xtra Images - http://www.dcski.com/articles/view_article.php?article_id=1121&mode=rss

http://ircamera.as.arizona.edu/NatSci102/NatSci102/lectures/sun.htm

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