"All the World's a Stage We Pass Through" R. Ayana

Showing posts with label DARPA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DARPA. Show all posts

Saturday, 2 January 2016

DARPA’s Brave New World


DARPA’s Brave New World

cyborg future man eye

Shutterstock

 

What the world will be like in 30 years, according to the US government's top scientists

The world is going to be a very different place in 2045.

 



Predicting the future is fraught with challenges, but when it comes to technological advances and forward thinking, experts working at the Pentagon's research agency may be the best people to ask.

Launched in 1958, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is behind some of the biggest innovations in the military — many of which have crossed over to the civilian technology market. These include things like advanced robotics, global positioning systems, and the Internet.


So what's going to happen in 2045?


It's pretty likely that robots and artificial technology are going to transform a bunch of industries, drone aircraft will continue their leap from the military to the civilian market, and self-driving cars will make your commute a lot more bearable.

But DARPA scientists have even bigger ideas. In a video series from October called "Forward to the Future," three researchers predict what they imagine will be a reality 30 years from now.

Dr. Justin Sanchez, a neuroscientist and program manager in DARPA’s Biological Technologies Office, believes we'll be at a point where we can control things simply by using our mind.

"Imagine a world where you could just use your thoughts to control your environment," Sanchez said. "Think about controlling different aspects of your home just using your brain signals, or maybe communicating with your friends and your family just using neural activity from your brain."

According to Sanchez, DARPA is currently working on neurotechnologies that can enable this to happen. There are already some examples of these kinds of futuristic breakthroughs in action, like brain implants controlling prosthetic arms.

Stefanie Tompkins, a geologist and director of DARPA's Defense Sciences Office, thinks we'll be able to build things that are incredibly strong but also very lightweight. Think of a skyscraper using materials that are strong as steel, but light as carbon fiber. That's a simple explanation for what Tompkins envisions, which gets a little bit more complicated down at the molecular level.

She explains:



"I think in 2045 we're going to find that we have a very different relationship with the machines around us," says Pam Melroy, aerospace engineer, former astronaut, and deputy director of DARPA's Tactical Technologies Office. "I think that we will begin to see a time when we're able to simply just talk or even press a button" to interact with a machine to get things done more intelligently, instead of using keyboards or rudimentary voice recognition systems.

She continues: "For example, right now to prepare for landing in an aircraft there's multiple steps that have to be taken to prepare yourself, from navigation, get out of the cruise mode, begin to set up the throttles ... put the gear down. All of these steps have to happen in the right sequence." 

Instead, Melroy envisions an aircraft landing in the future being as simple as what an airline pilot currently tells the flight attendants: "Prepare for landing." In 2045, a pilot may just say those three words and the computer knows the series of complex steps it needs to do in order to make that happen.

Or perhaps, with artificial intelligence, a pilot won't even be necessary.

"Our world will be full of those kinds of examples where we can communicate directly our intent and have very complex outcomes by working together."


DARPA wants to build a personal assistant that can read your mind

 

http://static.businessinsider.com/image/559bf8d92acae7f4028b5eea/image.jpg

 




It’s the age of the smart device. From Apple’s Siri to the Amazon Echo, helpful personal assistants are being built into the world around us.

While we are still waiting for Siri to get a little better, the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) wants to go a step further — they want to build personal assistant machines that can anticipate your needs by reading your mind and body signals.

In a talk at June’s DARPA Biology is Technology conference in New York City, DARPA program manager Justin Sanchez explained that the data from our smart watches and trackers actually ends up being pretty meaningless, since these devices can’t put data in any sort of context or output a recommended action in response.

“Many of you are just getting things back like ‘this is what your heart rate is right now’ or ‘you took 6,000 steps today,'” he said during a talk. “Who cares about that stuff? What you really want to do is use that information to help you interact with machines in a much deeper way … today we don’t typically aggregate those signals together and do something with it.”

With the proliferation of these sensors in smart watches and trackers, Sanchez says it’s the right time to develop a smart device that can read these mind and body signals, connect to an external device that makes sense of the information, and then use that information to anticipate what you need and make recommendations.

“We have the pieces,” Sanchez told Business Insider. “These sensors are starting to be everywhere. Not only are they in the environment, they’re also on our bodies … we’ve got the computing power to take the information out of those sensors and we’ve got the mobile platforms so we have that interface at every step of our everyday lives.”

For Sanchez, the possibilities of this technology would be endless.

He points to the Nest Learning Thermostat, which can make changes to the temperature throughout the day based on your past settings, as an example. The Nest Thermostat puts machine learning to practical use, ensuring that after a few days, you may never have to set the thermostat again. Machine learning is a subfield of AI science focused on taking past patterns and making predictions based on those patterns.

Sanchez imagines a “physiological computer” that can read body and mind signals like heart rate and temperature and be able to tell, if you’re hot, cold, sleepy, frightened, or bored.

“You could interact with your environment, your architecture,” Sanchez said. “Let’s say you’re having a low point in your day in terms of productivity so what if you had an interface that could say ‘how about doing this? maybe this could spark your productivity?'”

Sanchez’s talk was called “Brain-Machine Symbiosis,” and he suggested that this seamless communication could one day happen directly between the brain and our devices through the use of implantable sensors.

But implants that can detect the brain’s electrical signals still have a long way to go.

For one thing, scientists still have yet to design devices that can stay in the brain for a long time without causing damage or losing functionality — the body simply doesn’t like them. Surgery to place implants is invasive. Surgeons drill small holes through the skull and “insert long thin electrodes” deep inside the brain,” according to a 2012 article in The Scientist.

The implants are often made of stainless steel or other types of metal — useful for conducting electric signals, but problematic for biological purposes.

“If you look at implanted electronics in the brain over the past 10 to 20 years, all suffer from a common problem which is the implant’s electronic probes … create scarring in brain tissue,” said Charles Lieber, a chemist from Harvard University who is working on a tiny mesh brain implant.


http://static.businessinsider.com/image/55946a112acae78b0e8b54b6/image.jpgLieber Research Group, Harvard University


When the body’s immune system senses an implant, the brain’s defence mechanism creates scar tissue around it to protect the brain. When a probe becomes too engulfed in glial scarring, it loses functionality.

But that doesn’t stop Sanchez. However we get to this “brain-machine symbiosis,” he’s open to it.

“There are many different futures that can stem from what we and others are doing,” he said. “There are a lot of technologies that could potentially get us there, which one is the right one? We can’t say. We’ve just got to try.”

Watch Justin Sanchez talk about his ideas at the conference, uploaded to YouTube by DARPAtv:







Acoustic Holograms that Levitate Particles



A team of researchers from the Universities of Bristol and Sussex in collaboration with Ultrahaptics have built the world’s first sonic tractor beam that can lift and move objects using sound wave.

Holographic acoustic elements for manipulation of levitated objects by Asier Marzo, Sue Ann Seah, Bruce W. Drinkwater, Deepak Ranjan Sahoo, Benjamin Long and Sriram Subramanian is published in Nature Communications.

Acoustic holograms are projected from a flat surface and contrary to traditional holograms, they exert considerable forces on the objects contained within.

The acoustic holograms can be updated in real-time to translate, rotate and combine levitated particles enabling unprecedented contactless manipulators such as tractor beams.



If we talking about the latest holographic techniques then watch this video of an amazing hologram technology show hold in Dubai last year showing spectacular holographic projections of animals, flying dragons and other out of this world creatures.




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Thursday, 17 October 2013

Robots And Computers Could Take Half Our Jobs Within The Next 20 Years


Robots And Computers Could Take Half Our Jobs Within The Next 20 Years

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/92/TOPIO_3.jpg

 

By Michael Snyder

What are human workers going to do when super-intelligent robots and computers are better than us at doing everything?  That is one of the questions that a new study by Dr. Carl Frey and Dr. Michael Osborne of Oxford University sought to address, and what they concluded was that 47 percent of all U.S. jobs could be automated within the next 20 years. 

Considering the fact that the percentage of the U.S. population that is employed is already far lower than it was a decade ago, it is frightening to think that tens of millions more jobs could disappear due to technological advances over the next couple of decades. 

I have written extensively about how we are already losing millions of jobs to super cheap labor on the other side of the globe.  What are middle class families going to do as technology also takes away huge numbers of our jobs at an ever increasing pace?  We live during a period of history when knowledge is increasing an an exponential rate.  In the past, when human workers were displaced by technology it also created new kinds of jobs that the world had never seen before.  But what happens when the day arrives when computers and robots can do almost everything more cheaply and more efficiently than humans can?

For employers, there are a whole host of advantages that come with replacing human workers with technology.  Robots and computers never complain, they never get tired, they never need vacation, they never show up late, they never waste time on Facebook, they don't need any health benefits and there are a vast array of rules, regulations and taxes that you must deal with when you hire a human worker.

If you could get a task done more cheaply and more efficiently by replacing a human worker with technology, why wouldn't you want to do it?

Robot 2013We are already starting to see this happen on a mass scale, and according to Dr. Frey and Dr. Osborne, close to half of all of our jobs could be automated within the next 20 years.  A recent article posted on smartplanet.com described how this process might play out...

The automation of half the nation’s jobs will occur in two phases, the study says: The first wave will affect (and is affecting) jobs in transportation/logistics, production labor, administrative support, services, sales, and construction. The second wave — propelled by artificial intelligence — will affect jobs in management, science, engineering, and the arts.

Just as interesting as the study is the response provided by Gary Reber, founder and executive director of For Economic Justice, who argues that owners of the means of production will actually thrive as such a shift takes place. Those who rely on 9-to-5 standard employment arrangements for subsistence are likely to  suffer the most in the automation wave. As Reber put it: ‘Full employment is not an objective of businesses. Companies strive to keep labor input and other costs at a minimum.”

This is one of the reasons why the U.S. economy will never produce enough jobs for everyone ever again.

If technology can outperform humans, it is only rational for companies to replace humans with technology.

And this is even starting to happen in fields that require very high levels of education.

Just look at what is happening in the medical field.  Today, millions of people turn to websites such as WebMD for their medical needs, but this is only just the beginning.  Check out this excerpt from a recent Bloomberg article entitled "Doctor Robot Will See You Shortly"...

Johnson & Johnson proposes to replace anesthesiologists during simple procedures such as colonoscopies -- not with nurse practitioners, but with machines. Sedasys, which dispenses propofol and monitors a patient automatically, was recently approved for use in healthy adult patients who have no particular risk of complications. Johnson & Johnson will lease the machines to doctor’s offices for $150 per procedure -- cleverly set well below the $600 to $2,000 that anesthesiologists usually charge.

Certainly we will always need doctors.

But many of the tasks that doctors once performed will now be performed by technology.

For example, have you heard about "OnStar for the Body" yet?  Some of these new "wearable technologies" are more than a little bit creepy...

Smart, cheaper and point-of-care sensors, such as those being developed for the Nokia Sensing XCHALLENGE, will further enable the 'Digital Checkup' from anywhere. The world of 'Quantified Self' and 'Quantified Health' will lead to a new generation of wearable technologies partnered with Artificial Intelligence that will help decipher and make this information actionable.

And this 'actionability' is key. We hear the term Big Data used in various contexts; when applied to health information it will likely be the smart integration of massive data sets from the 'Internet of things' with the small data about your activity, mood, and other information. When properly filtered, this data set can give insights on a macro level - population health - and micro - 'OnStar for the Body' with a personalized 'check engine light' to help identify individual problems before they further develop into expensive, difficult-to-treat or fatal conditions.

We are also seeing humans being replaced in other fields as well.  For instance, DARPA has developed a robot named "Atlas" that it hopes will be used in "disaster-response scenarios"...

DARPA's Virtual Robotics Challenge entered a new phase in July, when Atlas — a 6-foot-2-inch, 330-pound robot developed by Boston Dynamics — was introduced to seven teams tasked with training it for disaster-response scenarios. The end goal? "Supervised autonomy" so that Atlas and its successors can step into situations too dangerous for humans.

I don't know about you, but I don't really want "Terminator" to show up when my family is in the middle of a disaster, but this is where things are headed.

And as technology increases, a lot of good paying middle class jobs are going to be vulnerable.  In fact, one study of employment data that examined statistics from 20 countries found that "almost all the jobs disappearing are in industries that pay middle-class wages, ranging from $38,000 to $68,000."

http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2478/4022770547_e5ed64e95f_z.jpgThose are exactly the sort of "breadwinner jobs" that middle class families rely upon.

And of course working class jobs are being replaced by technology as well.  According to MIT Technology Review, a $22,000 humanoid robot named Baxter has been developed that can easily be programmed to do jobs that have never been automated before...

Brooks’s company, Rethink Robotics, says the robot will spark a “renaissance” in American manufacturing by helping small companies compete against low-wage offshore labor. Baxter will do that by accelerating a trend of factory efficiency that’s eliminated more jobs in the U.S. than overseas competition has. Of the approximately 5.8 million manufacturing jobs the U.S. lost between 2000 and 2010, according to McKinsey Global Institute, two-thirds were lost because of higher productivity and only 20 percent moved to places like China, Mexico, or Thailand.

The ultimate goal is for robots like Baxter to take over more complex tasks, such as fitting together parts on an electronics assembly line. “A couple more ticks of Moore’s Law and you’ve got automation that works more cheaply than Chinese labor does,” Andrew McAfee, an MIT researcher, predicted last year at a conference in Tucson, Arizona, where Baxter was discussed.

So what are human workers going to do when robots are making all of our products?

That is a very good question.

Incredibly, robots are now even replacing human factory workers in China.  The following comes from a recent TechCrunch article...

Foxconn has been planning to buy 1 million robots to replace human workers and it looks like that change, albeit gradual, is about to start.

The company is allegedly paying $25,000 per robot – about three times a worker’s average salary – and they will replace humans in assembly tasks. The plans have been in place for a while – I spoke to Foxconn reps about this a year ago – and it makes perfect sense. Humans are messy, they want more money, and having a half-a-million of them in one factory is a recipe for unrest. But what happens after the halls are clear of careful young men and women and instead full of whirring robots?

So who benefits from all of this?

Those that own the big corporations that dominate our economy certainly benefit.  They aren't going to need to hire as many of us to work for them, and they are going to make even bigger profits than before.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5d/Advanced_Automation_for_Space_Missions_figure_5-29.gif

Meanwhile, the gap between the wealthy and the poor will grow even larger.  The only thing that most people have to offer in the economic marketplace is their labor, and the demand for that labor is decreasing with each passing day.

What do you think will happen to society when most of us are no longer "needed"?

Could we be headed for big trouble as a society?

And if you think that your job could "never be automated", you might want to think again.

We are rapidly getting to the point where even driving will be automated...

Brace yourself. In a few years, your car will be able to drop you off at the door of a shopping center or airport terminal, go park itself and return when summoned with a smartphone app. Audi demonstrated such a system at this year's Consumer Electronics Show.

At your next dinner party, ask for a show of hands of the people who'd want that.

Everybody?

Anybody want a car that doesn't crash? At this month's Frankfurt auto show, mega-auto supplier Continental announced a partnership with IBM to help bring autonomous vehicles to market, with "zero accidents" as a possible result. Volvo has promised to injury-proof its cars by 2020. GM and Carnegie Mellon aim to develop autonomous technology to eliminate car accidents.

So what will happen to the 3.1 million Americans that drive trucks for a living once all driving is automated?

What will happen to the millions of other Americans that drive buses, taxis and limos once all driving is automated?

That is something to think about.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/16/Actroid-DER_01.jpg

And researchers are even trying to create computers that "seem human" when you have a conversation with them...

On 14 September, researchers will gathered in Derry, Northern Ireland, to demonstrate their latest efforts. If any of them has created a machine that successfully mimics a human, they will leave $100,000 richer.

The money is being put up by Hugh Loebner, a New York based philanthropist. His goal, he says, is total unemployment for all human beings throughout the world. He wants robots to do all the work. And the first step towards that is apparently to develop computers that seem human when you chat to them.

So if your job involves a telephone, you are in danger of being phased out.  In fact, this transition is already starting to happen...

IPsoft is a young company started by Chetan Dube, a former mathematics professor at New York University. He reckons that artificial intelligence can take over most of the routine information-technology and business-process tasks currently performed by workers in offshore locations. “The last decade was about replacing labour with cheaper labour,” says Mr Dube. “The coming decade will be about replacing cheaper labour with autonomics.”

IPsoft’s Eliza, a “virtual service-desk employee” that learns on the job and can reply to e-mail, answer phone calls and hold conversations, is being tested by several multinationals. At one American media giant she is answering 62,000 calls a month from the firm’s information-technology staff. She is able to solve two out of three of the problems without human help. At IPsoft’s media-industry customer Eliza has replaced India’s Tata Consulting Services.

We truly are entering an unprecedented time in human history.

Instead of robots violently taking over society like so many movies have portrayed, they are slowly starting to "replace" us instead.  A recent Wired article described what this transition might look like as it picks up steam...

First, machines will consolidate their gains in already-automated industries. After robots finish replacing assembly line workers, they will replace the workers in warehouses. Speedy bots able to lift 150 pounds all day long will retrieve boxes, sort them, and load them onto trucks. Fruit and vegetable picking will continue to be robotized until no humans pick outside of specialty farms. Pharmacies will feature a single pill-dispensing robot in the back while the pharmacists focus on patient consulting. Next, the more dexterous chores of cleaning in offices and schools will be taken over by late-night robots, starting with easy-to-do floors and windows and eventually getting to toilets. The highway legs of long-haul trucking routes will be driven by robots embedded in truck cabs.

All the while, robots will continue their migration into white-collar work. We already have artificial intelligence in many of our machines; we just don’t call it that. Witness one piece of software by Narrative Science (profiled in issue 20.05) that can write newspaper stories about sports games directly from the games’ stats or generate a synopsis of a company’s stock performance each day from bits of text around the web. Any job dealing with reams of paperwork will be taken over by bots, including much of medicine. Even those areas of medicine not defined by paperwork, such as surgery, are becoming increasingly robotic. The rote tasks of any information-intensive job can be automated. It doesn’t matter if you are a doctor, lawyer, architect, reporter, or even programmer: The robot takeover will be epic.

Are you ready for the "robot takeover"?

The world of employment is never going to be the same again.  Technology has already surpassed human workers in a whole host of arenas, and this transition is only going to become more rapid in the years ahead.

So what does this mean for the rest of us?  Please feel free to share your thoughts by posting a comment below...



From The economic Collapse Blog @ http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/oxford-professors-nearly-half-our-jobs-could-be-automated-within-the-next-20-years  


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